"Numbers" by Mia Couto

"Nobody doubts it anymore: AIDS is a big tripping fall not only to the development of our country but to our own survival. No government, no political agenda can dodge that obstacle. We will go on losing the best of our lives, we will go on losing the most productive of our age groups. We will go on spending millions that could be directly invested in the creation of wealth.

All of this is known. But it is worth bringing it up to talk about how lightly we discuss the AIDS numbers. Recently the press has focused on AIDS patients who will receive medical treatment. And numbers were announced. This year, about 50.000 patients will be treated. Expressed like this, with no context, it seems like a victory. I have spoken with workers in my company and they all seemed impressed. Fifty thousand is an important number.

No one doubts it is a victory. For a poor and ill prepared nation to deal with such a cast epidemic, magic passes can not be expected. However that number can only be considered in the context of a total number of the people infected by the virus. And in Mozambique that number is approximately one million and five hundred thousand! When we say we will treat fifty thousand people, we are also saying that one million, four hundred and fifty thousand people will not have access to the treatment. Put in the right context, the apparently grand headlines are immediately destroyed. The same math can be done with the number of pregnant women who benefit from the treatment to avoid transmission of the virus to their babies. They are about 4 thousand. The immediate question is: how many will have access to treatment?

The real news would not be how many people are treated but those who will remain untreated. The real headlines should inform of the million and four hundred and fifty thousand excluded. Terrible ethical problems arise: how to decide who will benefit from the program?

What just happened is not the responsibility of the Ministry of Health. After reading the communications of its leaders we understand at once the cautious tone and the absence of any affirmation of victory. On the contrary, extreme apprehension prevails, as substantiated in the words of the Health Minister: "it is a matter of the nation's survival". A subject this serious can not be treated lightly. We are talking about the lives of our fellow Mozambicans. "

Mia Couto
February 2005 , in MAIS magazine.

(my translation)